Waldo Acebo Meireles
Sunday Amuchástegui Alvarez wrote an article for Encounter Cuba, What happens in Cuba? , which I think is worthy of serious analysis and full. Start Amuschástegui dicendonos that:
"Right now, right under our noses, Cuba is undergoing a full transformation. A new set of political, social and economic is taking shape. "
But the problem is that we, the rest of us, we have not noticed, wrapped in old arguments in which we waste energy and we need is "a renewed focus and a new understanding of the phenomenon ", ie we are not the Cuban lawlessness that needs a new approach.
doctoral then reminds us as the process in China 30 years ago was misunderstood, as well as the changes in Russia for 15 was also wrong and not the "cream" were his words, the North American Sovietology could predict events which occurred at the removal of Boris Yeltsin, were all wrong, hopefully Amuschástegui no mistake.
In these examples, which have nothing in common with the case of Cuba, goes directly to the errors identified by the WikiILeaks, when the predictions of the U.S. Interests Section in 2009, it predicted the collapse of the Cuban economy in 2011, according to him were wrong, according to the "general chairman" in the words of ineffable Eusebio Leal, Cuba was to end 2010 to the brink, not so much wrong, or is, there is much difference between being on the brink and that the country would have no resources to survive beyond 2011? I do not look very different.
then taken for good prediction of the WikiLeaks asserting that the Cuban economy is less vulnerable now than 20 years ago, that thing go!, Now that banks are unable to pay debts and make cash deposits in hard currency, now that was even necessary to reduce food imports, what a spirit of contradiction is the analyst. But sovereign majesty advises us to improve the accuracy.
We immediately release a numbing tirade:
"The most important change, paradoxically, is happening in the fields of politics, culture, ideas, and is characterized by an atmosphere of debate since 2007 alo has been growing throughout the nation. Promoted at the outset by intellectuals through their own communication resources, it was assumed then by the party, with hundreds of thousands of complaints, requests, comments and recommendations "
Cubanologists Admittedly, this is because it is a Cubanologists or not, has information that we have overlooked, or receives a source is not available from other analysts. Sadly we have to accept that what until now we knew was that a few years ago discussions were framed in the most stony silences and is now taking place to discuss the guidelines previously approved by Congress yet to conclude, follow the traditional method of restricting the views too dangerous or revealing.
How do you combine this most important changes are occurring in the field of politics? Certainly is a paradox because the Guidelines on 'discussion' not only addresses changes in the economic sphere, but obviously the analyst sees the paradox in reverse since the changes proposed, and already running in no point to changes politicians.
This assumes, moreover, that two or three statements, very careful indeed, some intellectuals and artists are those who have promoted the party take these recommendations and ideas. Never have occurred to me anything like "the birds pulling the shotgun, the bird has no involvement. Immediately
enlightens us with news that the bodies are open to opinions and criticisms, I suspect that refers to a letter published by Granma, ringing in the flats!, Amuchástegui forgive me, but that is not serious . It's not worth testing.
then converts under the necessity of using pirated software American TV, as if the TV is not always in Cuba had used pirated films in their programming, but more and pirated good now that exemplifies the opening, on the other hand if my erroneous information is not in cinemas only showed a film of denunciation of Stalinism, I mean "The Lives of Others ", not as translated into English, and this limited way.
The other argument that we 'demuetra'la opening is now the Cubans, who have Internet access can read all the messages of protest and Yoani bloggers, and this, somewhat dull, can not understand what is happening, when she actually elated to be able to see your blog, after three years of blockade, and reasoned, probably sum unknown reason but the reason for such release is most likely it was to present a better image with many foreign guests to the International Data, as she says: "Give an image of tolerance, called openings in the field of public expression."
But let Amuchástegui vision of economic change:
"In the economic field, drastic changes are occurring, will continue to expand. State farms have virtually disappeared and been replaced by private cooperatives, private farms and "farmers" (up to 70% of the country's undeveloped land have been distributed to these farmers) "
Again we must assume that This analyst has access to sources that are closed and that to say the least are in conflict with those available to us as if we may call dramatic changes to a fragile economy of artisans who peel fruit and wrapped buttons, then we have no clear concept of drastic, but better yet we predicts that these measures will continue to expand, or is likely to one hundred and seventy-odd occupations allowed to rise 'one hundred and eighty drásticamente'a much.
Who said the state farms are disappearing and have been replaced by private cooperatives, etc..? To then say something that comes in direct conflict with the regime's own statements regarding the delivery of land in usufruct which neither catch a glimpse of this 70%.
Then talk of loans and credits that are not where they came from because the Cuban government economists, analyzing the agrarian problem mentioned lack of credit as one of the limits to bring land into production, but apparently knows more than Amuschástegui them of the matter.
then whispers to us that there is room for greater private sector participation in the tourism industry, ie we assume that there are private participation in this key sector, we assume that refers to the 'tastes' in competition with restaurants estatales y por tanto si vamos a tener más ‘paladares’ pues entonces el sector privado tendrá más participación. Reconozcamos que tiene su lógica, aunque no se refiera a capitales cubanos, invirtiendo en ‘resorts’ o compartiendo con inversionistas extranjeros.
Y ahora viene una bomba
“Para 2015 alrededor de dos millones de personas y sus familias se habrán integrado al sector privado .”
Lo que sabíamos hasta ahora era que para el 2013 millón y medio cubanos quedarían desempleados, de pronto aparece medio millón más para el 2015, sin lugar a dudas el analista tiene fuentes de información a which we have no access, but do not worry it tells us then those two billion will be integrated into the private sector, we will see if the 500 thousand this year can be integrated into the elastic private sector, which prefers to call the misrule 'self employed' they know why.
But the thing is guaranteed by the capital accumulated by the 'self employed' farmers, remittances, and finally granted state loans, on the latter, I suggest you sit down to wait for the balance of payments is stable, the budget deficit is solved, generate financial resources and to eliminate the double currency, is going to long, if that happens sometime.
In the international arena also has information that the author did not know when we are said to have achieved new levels of dialogue and cooperation with the European Union, apparently was not aware that the common position remains in effect despite efforts English government to change.
After squarely into one big tradeoff:
"Some recent political developments have led to the current position of the Cuban authorities. The media impact cases that had Zapata Tamayo and Fariñas, which produced no significant reaction in Cuba itself, was soon eclipsed by efforts of the Government and eventually pass into oblivion. The scandal has added WikiLeaks disrepute and lack of credibility with internal opposition (the so-called dissidents) and its connections with the United States. The release of political prisoners and dialogue and cooperation with the Catholic Church, followed by the reforms have changed the priorities of the mainstream media "
tells us that the external impact cases Zapata Tamayo and Fariñas has been overshadowed by the efforts of the Government and it has favored the current stance of the Cuban authorities, what is concerned, the forthcoming trial of Gross, do not know, but should not be because of what he speaks of the release, it says deportation of political prisoners and the dialogue with the Church, it also tells us of Farina and Tamayo had no significant reaction internally, yet in his opinion the discrediting WikiLeak internal opposition yes, go for some things that the people of Cuba are full and some not, of course they learn from those who want to know it.
And finally, the analyst comes to an important conclusion: "is a transition and its origin is within the power structure of the island ..." and even further: "continuity of policy changes and reforms is now linked to every aspect of Cuban life.." other words, Cuba is producing a profound change and it depends on the permanence of gerontocratic elite currently in power. It is to scare to scare.
but not sufficient with the above is reaffirmed when we state that:
"Society is changing profoundly. [...] That the Cuban leadership and power structure will remain "frozen in time", is absolutely unthinkable and unacceptable. That's true leadership " force behind these changes, be adapted and adjusted, both domestically and internationally. In fact, it is already doing. "
conclusion: we must not oppose the leadership, on the contrary we support it because it is her that you can expect changes in our country. This new understanding of the phenomenon that he proposes Amuchástegui May God take us confessed!
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